Strategy - Employment Trend Timing - Aggressive


A strategy that switches to an aggressive buy-and-hold portfolio during times of growth and to a bond portfolio just before recessions. Uses the trend of the seasonally-adjusted U.S. civilian unemployment rate to determine whether or not a U.S. recession is imminent or in progress.

Past Performance

  • Has been able to predict 12 of the past 14 U.S. recessions.
  • Recessions in the US economy generally precede recessions in the Global economy, therefore, this strategy has been successful in predicting global recessions in the past.

Source Information

Based on the blog post In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator by Philosophical Economics.

Trading Information

Trades rarely. Trades are only placed to rebalance at the end of the year, and to reblanace when it thinks a recession is about to begin or end.

Risk Level



Name Symbol
Canadian Aggregate Bonds ZAG.TO
MSCI World Index XWD.TO
S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF XIC.TO

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Strategy Backtest

The information below shows how well this strategy performed in the past so that you can determine if it would be a good fit for you. The strategy backtest results are shown compared against the "Couch Potato - Balanced" benchmark strategy.



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